Climate‐driven changes to the spatio‐temporal distribution of the parasitic nematode, Haemonchus contortus, in sheep in Europe

Rose, Hannah ORCID: 0000-0002-1488-0315, Caminade, Cyril ORCID: 0000-0002-3846-7082, Bolajoko, Muhammad Bashir, Phelan, Paul, Van-Dijk, Jan, Baylis, Matthew ORCID: 0000-0003-0335-187X, Williams, Diana ORCID: 0000-0001-8186-7236 and Morgan, Eric R (2016) Climate‐driven changes to the spatio‐temporal distribution of the parasitic nematode, Haemonchus contortus, in sheep in Europe. Global Change Biology, 22 (3). pp. 1271-1285.

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Abstract

Recent climate change has resulted in changes to the phenology and distribution of invertebrates worldwide. Where invertebrates are associated with disease, climate variability and changes in climate may also affect the spatio-temporal dynamics of disease. Due to its significant impact on sheep production and welfare, the recent increase in diagnoses of ovine haemonchosis caused by the nematode Haemonchus contortus in some temperate regions is particularly concerning. This study is the first to evaluate the impact of climate change on H. contortus at a continental scale. A model of the basic reproductive quotient of macroparasites, Q0, adapted to H. contortus and extended to incorporate environmental stochasticity and parasite behaviour, was used to simulate Pan-European spatio-temporal changes in H. contortus infection pressure under scenarios of climate change. Baseline Q0 simulations, using historic climate observations, reflected the current distribution of H. contortus in Europe. In northern Europe, the distribution of H. contortus is currently limited by temperatures falling below the development threshold during the winter months and within-host arrested development is necessary for population persistence over winter. In southern Europe, H. contortus infection pressure is limited during the summer months by increased temperature and decreased moisture. Compared with this baseline, Q0 simulations driven by a climate model ensemble predicted an increase in H. contortus infection pressure by the 2080s. In northern Europe, a temporal range expansion was predicted as the mean period of transmission increased by 2–3 months. A bimodal seasonal pattern of infection pressure, similar to that currently observed in southern Europe, emerges in northern Europe due to increasing summer temperatures and decreasing moisture. The predicted patterns of change could alter the epidemiology of H. contortus in Europe, affect the future sustainability of contemporary control strategies, and potentially drive local adaptation to climate change in parasite populations.

Item Type:	Article
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Haemonchus contortus, Q0, gastrointestinal nematode, climate change, Europe, adaptation, distribution shift, infection pressure, climate impact mitigation
Depositing User:	Symplectic Admin
Date Deposited:	04 May 2016 07:46
Last Modified:	19 Jan 2023 07:37
DOI:	10.1111/gcb.13132
Related URLs:	Author Publisher
URI:	https://livrepository.liverpool.ac.uk/id/eprint/3001039