Potential applications of subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) predictions

Collapse authors list.
White, Christopher J, Carlsen, Henrik, Robertson, Andrew W, Klein, Richard JT, Lazo, Jeffrey K, Kumar, Arun, Vitart, Frederic, de Perez, Erin Coughlan, Ray, Andrea J, Murray, Virginia et al (show 24 more authors) , Bharwani, Sukaina, MacLeod, Dave, James, Rachel, Fleming, Lora, Morse, Andrew P ORCID: 0000-0002-0413-2065, Eggen, Bernd, Graham, Richard, Kjellstrom, Erik, Becker, Emily, Pegion, Kathleen V, Holbrook, Neil J, McEvoy, Darryn, Depledge, Michael, Perkins-Kirkpatrick, Sarah, Brown, Timothy J, Street, Roger, Jones, Lindsey, Remenyi, Tomas A, Hodgson-Johnston, Indi, Buontempo, Carlo, Lamb, Rob, Meinke, Holger, Arheimer, Berit and Zebiak, Stephen E (2017) Potential applications of subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) predictions. METEOROLOGICAL APPLICATIONS, 24 (3). pp. 315-325.

Text White et al_MET-16-0083.R2_SUBMITTED_withfigs.pdf - Author Accepted Manuscript Download (868kB)

Abstract

<jats:title>ABSTRACT</jats:title><jats:p>While seasonal outlooks have been operational for many years, until recently the extended‐range timescale referred to as subseasonal‐to‐seasonal (<jats:styled-content style="fixed-case">S2S</jats:styled-content>) has received little attention. <jats:styled-content style="fixed-case">S2S</jats:styled-content> prediction fills the gap between short‐range weather prediction and long‐range seasonal outlooks. Decisions in a range of sectors are made in this extended‐range lead time; therefore, there is a strong demand for this new generation of forecasts. International efforts are under way to identify key sources of predictability, improve forecast skill and operationalize aspects of <jats:styled-content style="fixed-case">S2S</jats:styled-content> forecasts; however, challenges remain in advancing this new frontier. If <jats:styled-content style="fixed-case">S2S</jats:styled-content> predictions are to be used effectively, it is important that, along with science advances, an effort is made to develop, communicate and apply these forecasts appropriately. In this study, the emerging operational <jats:styled-content style="fixed-case">S2S</jats:styled-content> forecasts are presented to the wider weather and climate applications community by undertaking the first comprehensive review of sectoral applications of <jats:styled-content style="fixed-case">S2S</jats:styled-content> predictions, including public health, disaster preparedness, water management, energy and agriculture. The value of applications‐relevant <jats:styled-content style="fixed-case">S2S</jats:styled-content> predictions is explored, and the opportunities and challenges facing their uptake are highlighted. It is shown how social sciences can be integrated with <jats:styled-content style="fixed-case">S2S</jats:styled-content> development, from communication to decision‐making and valuation of forecasts, to enhance the benefits of ‘climate services’ approaches for extended‐range forecasting. While <jats:styled-content style="fixed-case">S2S</jats:styled-content> forecasting is at a relatively early stage of development, it is concluded that it presents a significant new window of opportunity that can be explored for application‐ready capabilities that could allow many sectors the opportunity to systematically plan on a new time horizon.</jats:p>

Item Type:	Article
Uncontrolled Keywords:	climate prediction, forecasting, decision-support, ensemble forecasts, extremes, extended-range, seasonal prediction
Depositing User:	Symplectic Admin
Date Deposited:	14 Feb 2017 13:16
Last Modified:	30 Oct 2023 22:18
DOI:	10.1002/met.1654
Related URLs:	Author Publisher
URI:	https://livrepository.liverpool.ac.uk/id/eprint/3005797