Probabilistic Sea Level Projections at the Coast by 2100

Jevrejeva, S, Frederikse, T, Kopp, RE, Le Cozannet, G, Jackson, LP and van de Wal, RSW (2019) Probabilistic Sea Level Projections at the Coast by 2100. SURVEYS IN GEOPHYSICS, 40 (6). pp. 1673-1696.

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Official URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10712-019-09550-y

Abstract

As sea level is rising along many low-lying and densely populated coastal areas, affected communities are investing resources to assess and manage future socio-economic and ecological risks created by current and future sea level rise. Despite significant progress in the scientific understanding of the physical mechanisms contributing to sea level change, projections beyond 2050 remain highly uncertain. Here, we present recent developments in the probabilistic projections of coastal mean sea level rise by 2100, which provides a summary assessment of the relevant uncertainties. Probabilistic projections can be used directly in some of the decision frameworks adopted by coastal engineers for infrastructure design and land use planning. However, relying on a single probability distribution or a set of distributions based upon a common set of assumptions can understate true uncertainty and potentially misinform users. Here, we put the probabilistic projections published over the last 5 years into context.

Item Type:	Article
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Sea level rise, Probabilistic sea level projections, Coastal impact, Climate change
Depositing User:	Symplectic Admin
Date Deposited:	04 Dec 2019 14:03
Last Modified:	19 Jan 2023 00:17
DOI:	10.1007/s10712-019-09550-y
Open Access URL:	https://doi.org/10.1007/s10712-019-09550-y
Related URLs:	Author Publisher
URI:	https://livrepository.liverpool.ac.uk/id/eprint/3064785