A Markov chain model for forecasting results of mixed martial arts contests

Holmes, Benjamin, McHale, Ian G ORCID: 0000-0002-7686-3879 and Zychaluk, Kamila (2023) A Markov chain model for forecasting results of mixed martial arts contests. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF FORECASTING, 39 (2). pp. 623-640.

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Official URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2022.01.007

Abstract

In this paper, we present a new methodology for forecasting the results of mixed martial arts contests. Our approach utilises data scraped from freely available websites to estimate fighters’ skills in various key aspects of the sport. With these skill estimates, we simulate the contest as an actual fight using Markov chains, rather than predicting a binary outcome. We compare the model's accuracy to that of the bookmakers using their historical odds and show that the model can be used as the basis of a successful betting strategy.

Item Type:	Article
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Bayesian methods, Gambling, Markov chain, Mixed martial arts, Probability forecasting, Sports betting, Sports forecasting, Simulation
Divisions:	Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences > School of Management Faculty of Science and Engineering > School of Physical Sciences
Depositing User:	Symplectic Admin
Date Deposited:	11 May 2022 13:26
Last Modified:	19 Apr 2023 22:40
DOI:	10.1016/j.ijforecast.2022.01.007
Open Access URL:	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2022.01.007
Related URLs:	Author Publisher
URI:	https://livrepository.liverpool.ac.uk/id/eprint/3154619