Timing and magnitude of climate-driven range shifts in transboundary fish stocks challenge their management

Palacios-Abrantes, Juliano, Frolicher, Thomas L, Reygondeau, Gabriel, Sumaila, U Rashid, Tagliabue, Alessandro ORCID: 0000-0002-3572-3634, Wabnitz, Colette CC and Cheung, William WL (2022) Timing and magnitude of climate-driven range shifts in transboundary fish stocks challenge their management. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY, 28 (7). pp. 2312-2326.

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Official URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/gcb.16058

Abstract

Climate change is shifting the distribution of shared fish stocks between neighboring countries' Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZs) and the high seas. The timescale of these transboundary shifts determines how climate change will affect international fisheries governance. Here, we explore this timescale by coupling a large ensemble simulation of an Earth system model under a high emission climate change scenario to a dynamic population model. We show that by 2030, 23% of transboundary stocks will have shifted and 78% of the world's EEZs will have experienced at least one shifting stock. By the end of this century, projections show a total of 45% of stocks shifting globally and 81% of EEZs waters with at least one shifting stock. The magnitude of such shifts is reflected in changes in catch proportion between EEZs sharing a transboundary stock. By 2030, global EEZs are projected to experience an average change of 59% in catch proportion of transboundary stocks. Many countries that are highly dependent on fisheries for livelihood and food security emerge as hotspots for transboundary shifts. These hotspots are characterized by early shifts in the distribution of an important number of transboundary stocks. Existing international fisheries agreements need to be assessed for their capacity to address the social-ecological implications of climate-change-driven transboundary shifts. Some of these agreements will need to be adjusted to limit potential conflict between the parties of interest. Meanwhile, new agreements will need to be anticipatory and consider these concerns and their associated uncertainties to be resilient to global change.

Item Type:	Article
Uncontrolled Keywords:	climate change, fisheries management, shared fisheries, species on the move, time of emergence
Divisions:	Faculty of Science and Engineering > School of Environmental Sciences
Depositing User:	Symplectic Admin
Date Deposited:	16 May 2022 09:49
Last Modified:	18 Jan 2023 21:02
DOI:	10.1111/gcb.16058
Open Access URL:	https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/gcb.16...
Related URLs:	Author Publisher
URI:	https://livrepository.liverpool.ac.uk/id/eprint/3154868