To scan or not to scan? The economics of transthoracic ultrasonography for 'whole-flock' ovine pulmonary adenocarcinoma screening in UK sheep flocks



Davies, Peers ORCID: 0000-0001-6085-9763, Strugnell, Ben, Thomas, Lian ORCID: 0000-0001-8447-1210, Lovatt, Fiona and Willison, Isobel
(2022) To scan or not to scan? The economics of transthoracic ultrasonography for 'whole-flock' ovine pulmonary adenocarcinoma screening in UK sheep flocks. VETERINARY RECORD, 191 (7). e1980-.

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Abstract

<h4>Background</h4>Transthoracic ultrasonography (TTUS) is currently the only widely used method to diagnose suspected preclinical or subclinical cases of ovine pulmonary adenocarcinoma/Jaagsiekte (OPA) in live sheep. However, the economic impact of using TTUS as a screening test has not been described previously.<h4>Methods</h4>Test characteristics for TTUS in a low-prevalence situation were obtained from a previous study of 1074 breeding ewes that underwent TTUS with an experienced operator. The economic impact was modelled using a 10,000-iteration partial budget simulation and probability sensitivity analysis to explore the relative influence of model variables.<h4>Results</h4>In flocks of this size, culling true-positive and false-positive cases resulted in an estimated median net loss of £4647 (interquartile range: £3537-£6006), determined primarily by replacement ewe value and the cost of TTUS per ewe.<h4>Conclusion</h4>The results of this study emphasise that great caution should be exercised by practitioners when determining if TTUS is appropriate as a screening test for OPA in low-prevalence flocks or subpopulations within a flock, such as younger age groups, where the losses incurred through the inadvertent culling of healthy sheep may significantly exceed any benefit derived from culling preclinical/subclinical cases.

Item Type: Article
Uncontrolled Keywords: Animals, Sheep, Lung Neoplasms, Sheep Diseases, Ultrasonography, Female, United Kingdom, Adenocarcinoma of Lung
Divisions: Faculty of Health and Life Sciences
Faculty of Health and Life Sciences > Institute of Infection, Veterinary and Ecological Sciences
Depositing User: Symplectic Admin
Date Deposited: 15 Aug 2022 15:28
Last Modified: 18 Jan 2023 20:53
DOI: 10.1002/vetr.1980
Open Access URL: https://bvajournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/fu...
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URI: https://livrepository.liverpool.ac.uk/id/eprint/3161305