Projected impact of change in the percentage of energy from each NOVA group intake on cardiovascular disease mortality in Brazil: a modelling study

Leitao Moreira, Patricia Vasconcelos, Pereira de Arruda Neta, Adelia da Costa, Leite de Lima Ferreira, Flavia Emilia, de Araujo, Jevuks Matheus, da Costa Louzada, Maria Laura, Formiga Cavalcanti de Lima, Rafaela Lira, de Toledo Vianna, Rodrigo Pinheiro, da Silva Neto, Jose Moreira, Colombet, Zoe ORCID: 0000-0001-6179-7517 and O'Flaherty, Martin ORCID: 0000-0001-8944-4131 (2022) Projected impact of change in the percentage of energy from each NOVA group intake on cardiovascular disease mortality in Brazil: a modelling study. BMJ OPEN, 12 (4). e057953-.

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Official URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/bmjopen-2021-057953

Abstract

<h4>Objective</h4>Estimate reductions in cardiovascular mortality achievable through improvement in nutrient intakes according to processing level (NOVA classification), that is, reducing consumption of culinary ingredients (G2), processed (G3) and ultra-processed foods (G4) while encouraging consumption of unprocessed and minimally processed foods (G1).<h4>Design</h4>Modelling study.<h4>Setting</h4>General adult population of Brazil.<h4>Participants</h4>Men and women aged 25 or more years (34 003) investigated in the Household Budget Survey 2017-2018, in the consumption data module.<h4>Main outcome measures</h4>We used the IMPACT Food Policy Model to estimate the reduction in deaths from cardiovascular diseases (CVD) up to 2048 in five scenarios with reductions in saturated fat, trans fat, salt and added sugar intakes resulting from changes in NOVA groups. (1) The optimistic scenario modelised an increase in the energy intake provided by G1 and a reduction in the energy intake from G2, G3 and G4, return to previous levels. (2) The minimal scenario modelised a 3.7% increase in the energy intake from G1, and a reduction in the energy intake from G4 to the 2008-2009 level. (3) The modest scenario only modelised a 25.0% reduction of the energy intake from G2 and G3. (4) The intermediary scenario modelised the minimal scenario plus a 25.0% reduction in the energy intake from G2. (5) Finally, the advanced scenario modelised the minimal scenario plus a 25.0% reduction in the energy intake from G2 and G3.<h4>Results</h4>Proposed changes in the optimistic scenario could prevent or delay 52.8% CVD-related deaths by 2048. Changes modelled in the minimal, modest, intermediary and advanced scenarios may result in a 10.1%, 28.4%, 31.4% and 38.6% reduction in 2048 CVD mortality, respectively.<h4>Conclusions</h4>Substantial health gains can be achieved by improving the diet, through plausible modifications aimed at the level of processing as a tool for Brazilian food policies.

Item Type:	Article
Uncontrolled Keywords:	coronary heart disease, ischaemic heart disease, epidemiology, health policy, nutrition & dietetics
Divisions:	Faculty of Health and Life Sciences Faculty of Health and Life Sciences > Institute of Population Health
Depositing User:	Symplectic Admin
Date Deposited:	14 Sep 2022 10:42
Last Modified:	18 Jan 2023 20:41
DOI:	10.1136/bmjopen-2021-057953
Open Access URL:	https://bmjopen.bmj.com/content/12/4/e057953
Related URLs:	Author Publisher
URI:	https://livrepository.liverpool.ac.uk/id/eprint/3164671