Forecasting football match results using a player rating based model

Holmes, Benjamin ORCID: 0000-0003-1227-6795 and McHale, Ian G ORCID: 0000-0002-7686-3879 (2024) Forecasting football match results using a player rating based model. International Journal of Forecasting, 40 (1). pp. 302-312.

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Abstract

The paper presents a model for forecasting the results of football matches, which takes into account the abilities of the players on each team. The advantage of this approach is that the dynamic nature of team strengths is incorporated into the model directly. We test our model against the bookmaker's predictions and in a Kelly-type betting strategy applied to the pre-match win/draw/loss market. The new model results in significant positive returns to betting.

Item Type:	Article
Divisions:	Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences > School of Management
Depositing User:	Symplectic Admin
Date Deposited:	25 May 2023 09:17
Last Modified:	08 Jan 2024 06:26
DOI:	10.1016/j.ijforecast.2023.03.002
Open Access URL:	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2023.03.002
Related URLs:	Publisher
URI:	https://livrepository.liverpool.ac.uk/id/eprint/3170651