Sensitivity and Specificity of Different Prognostic Systems in Guiding Surveillance for Metastases in Uveal Melanoma



Robinson, Helena, Eleuteri, Antonio ORCID: 0000-0003-0718-6672, Sacco, Joseph J, Hussain, Rumana ORCID: 0000-0001-8208-5009, Heimann, Heinrich, Taktak, Azzam FG, Damato, Bertil, Thompson, Alexander J, Allen, Thomas, Kalirai, Helen
et al (show 1 more authors) (2023) Sensitivity and Specificity of Different Prognostic Systems in Guiding Surveillance for Metastases in Uveal Melanoma. CANCERS, 15 (9). 2610-.

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Abstract

Uveal melanoma (UM) metastasises in ~50% of patients, most frequently to the liver. Surveillance imaging can provide early detection of hepatic metastases; however, guidance regarding UM patient risk stratification for surveillance is unclear. This study compared sensitivity and specificity of four current prognostic systems, when used for risk stratification for surveillance, on patients treated at the Liverpool Ocular Oncology Centre (LOOC) between 2007-2016 (<i>n</i> = 1047). It found that the Liverpool Uveal Melanoma Prognosticator Online III (LUMPOIII) or Liverpool Parsimonious Model (LPM) offered greater specificity at equal levels of sensitivity than the American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) system or monosomy 3 alone, and suggests guidance to achieve 95% sensitivity and 51% specificity (i.e., how to detect the same number of patients with metastases, while reducing the number of negative scans). For example, 180 scans could be safely avoided over 5 years in 200 patients using the most specific approach. LUMPOIII also offered high sensitivity and improved specificity over the AJCC in the absence of genetic information, making the result relevant to centres that do not perform genetic testing, or where such testing is inappropriate or fails. This study provides valuable information for clinical guidelines for risk stratification for surveillance in UM.

Item Type: Article
Uncontrolled Keywords: uveal melanoma, prognosis, liver surveillance, risk stratification
Divisions: Faculty of Health and Life Sciences
Faculty of Science and Engineering > School of Physical Sciences
Faculty of Health and Life Sciences > Institute of Life Courses and Medical Sciences
Faculty of Health and Life Sciences > Institute of Systems, Molecular and Integrative Biology
Depositing User: Symplectic Admin
Date Deposited: 06 Jul 2023 08:23
Last Modified: 06 Jul 2023 08:23
DOI: 10.3390/cancers15092610
Related URLs:
URI: https://livrepository.liverpool.ac.uk/id/eprint/3171445