Swallow, Ben, Birrell, Paul, Blake, Joshua, Burgman, Mark, Challenor, Peter, Coffeng, Luc E, Dawid, Philip, De Angelis, Daniela, Goldstein, Michael, Hemming, Victoria et al (show 9 more authors)
(2022)
Challenges in estimation, uncertainty quantification and elicitation for pandemic modelling.
Epidemics, 38.
p. 100547.
Abstract
The estimation of parameters and model structure for informing infectious disease response has become a focal point of the recent pandemic. However, it has also highlighted a plethora of challenges remaining in the fast and robust extraction of information using data and models to help inform policy. In this paper, we identify and discuss four broad challenges in the estimation paradigm relating to infectious disease modelling, namely the Uncertainty Quantification framework, data challenges in estimation, model-based inference and prediction, and expert judgement. We also postulate priorities in estimation methodology to facilitate preparation for future pandemics.
| Item Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | Uncertainty, Forecasting, Pandemics |
| Divisions: | Faculty of Science and Engineering > School of Physical Sciences |
| Depositing User: | Symplectic Admin |
| Date Deposited: | 16 Oct 2023 08:09 |
| Last Modified: | 15 Mar 2024 16:47 |
| DOI: | 10.1016/j.epidem.2022.100547 |
| Open Access URL: | https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epidem.2022.100547 |
| Related URLs: | |
| URI: | https://livrepository.liverpool.ac.uk/id/eprint/3173736 |
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