Temporal Dynamics, Discovery, and Emergence of Human-Transmissible RNA Viruses.

Lu, Lu ORCID: 0000-0002-9330-7022, Zhang, Feifei, Brierley, Liam ORCID: 0000-0002-3026-4723, Robertson, Gail, Chase-Topping, Margo, Lycett, Samantha ORCID: 0000-0003-3159-596X and Woolhouse, Mark (2024) Temporal Dynamics, Discovery, and Emergence of Human-Transmissible RNA Viruses. Molecular biology and evolution, 41 (1). msad272-.

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Official URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/molbev/msad272

Abstract

Transmissibility, the ability to spread within host populations, is a prerequisite for a pathogen to have epidemic or pandemic potential. Here, we estimate the phylogenies of human infectivity and transmissibility using 1,408 genome sequences from 743 distinct RNA virus species/types in 59 genera. By repeating this analysis using data sets censored by virus discovery date, we explore how temporal changes in the known diversity of RNA viruses-especially recent increases in recognized nonhuman viruses-have altered these phylogenies. Over time, we find significant increases in the proportion of RNA virus genera estimated to have a nonhuman-infective ancestral state, in the fraction of distinct human virus lineages that are purely human-transmissible or strictly zoonotic (compared to mixed lineages), and in the number of human viruses with nearest relatives known not to infect humans. Our results are consistent with viruses that are capable of spreading in human populations commonly emerging from a nonhuman reservoir. This is more likely in lineages that already contain human-transmissible viruses but is rare in lineages that contain only strictly zoonotic viruses.

Item Type:	Article
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Humans, RNA Viruses, Orthomyxoviridae Infections, RNA, Phylogeny, Pandemics
Divisions:	Faculty of Health and Life Sciences Faculty of Health and Life Sciences > Institute of Population Health
Depositing User:	Symplectic Admin
Date Deposited:	25 Jan 2024 14:30
Last Modified:	27 Jan 2024 02:02
DOI:	10.1093/molbev/msad272
Open Access URL:	https://academic.oup.com/mbe/article/41/1/msad272/...
Related URLs:	Author Publisher
URI:	https://livrepository.liverpool.ac.uk/id/eprint/3178027