Ability of a dynamical climate sensitive disease model to reproduce historical Rift Valley Fever outbreaks over Africa

Chemison, Alizée, Ramstein, Gilles, Jones, Anne, Morse, Andy ORCID: 0000-0002-0413-2065 and Caminade, Cyril ORCID: 0000-0002-3846-7082 (2024) Ability of a dynamical climate sensitive disease model to reproduce historical Rift Valley Fever outbreaks over Africa. Scientific Reports, 14 (1). 3904-.

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Official URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-024-53774-x

Abstract

<jats:title>Abstract</jats:title><jats:p>Rift Valley Fever (RVF) is a zoonosis transmitted by <jats:italic>Aedes</jats:italic> and <jats:italic>Culex</jats:italic> mosquitoes, and is considered a priority pathogen by the WHO. RVF epidemics mostly occur in Africa and can decimate livestock herds, causing significant economic losses and posing health risks for humans. RVF transmission is associated with the occurrence of El Niño events that cause floods in eastern Africa and favour the emergence of mosquitoes in wetlands. Different risk models have been developed to forecast RVF transmission risk but very few studies have validated models at pan-African scale. This study aims to validate the skill of the Liverpool Rift Valley Fever model (LRVF) in reproducing RVF epidemics over Africa and to explore the relationship between simulated climatic suitability for RVF transmission and large-scale climate modes of variability such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Dipole Mode Index (DMI). Our results show that the LRVF model correctly simulates RVF transmission hotspots and reproduces large epidemics that affected African countries. LRVF was able to correctly reproduce major RVF epidemics in Somalia, Kenya, Zambia and to a lesser extent for Mauritania and Senegal. The positive phases of ENSO and DMI are associated with an increased risk of RVF over the Horn of Africa, with important time lags. Following research activities should focus on the development of predictive modelling systems at different time scales.</jats:p>

Item Type:	Article
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Animals, Humans, Aedes, Rift Valley fever virus, Zoonoses, Rift Valley Fever, Disease Outbreaks, Kenya
Divisions:	Faculty of Science and Engineering > School of Environmental Sciences
Depositing User:	Symplectic Admin
Date Deposited:	19 Feb 2024 08:28
Last Modified:	26 Feb 2024 17:35
DOI:	10.1038/s41598-024-53774-x
Related URLs:	Author Publisher
URI:	https://livrepository.liverpool.ac.uk/id/eprint/3178769