Predictors of treatment response in a lupus nephritis population: lessons from the Aspreva Lupus Management Study (ALMS) trial.

McDonald, Stephen ORCID: 0000-0001-7151-7654, Yiu, Sean, Su, Li, Gordon, Caroline, Truman, Matt, Lisk, Laura, Solomons, Neil, Bruce, Ian N ORCID: 0000-0003-3047-500X and MASTERPLANS Consortium, (2022) Predictors of treatment response in a lupus nephritis population: lessons from the Aspreva Lupus Management Study (ALMS) trial. Lupus science & medicine, 9 (1). e000584-.

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Abstract

<h4>Objectives</h4>To identify predictors of overall lupus and lupus nephritis (LN) responses in patients with LN.<h4>Methods</h4>Data from the Aspreva Lupus Management Study (ALMS) trial cohort was used to identify baseline predictors of response at 6 months. Endpoints were major clinical response (MCR), improvement, complete renal response (CRR) and partial renal response (PRR). Univariate and multivariate logistic regressions with least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) and cross-validation in randomly split samples were utilised. Predictors were ranked by the percentage of times selected by LASSO and prediction performance was assessed by the area under the receiver operating characteristics (AUROC) curve.<h4>Results</h4>We studied 370 patients in the ALMS induction trial. Improvement at 6 months was associated with older age (OR=1.03 (95% CI: 1.01 to 1.05) per year), normal haemoglobin (1.85 (1.16 to 2.95) vs low haemoglobin), active lupus (British Isles Lupus Assessment Group A or B) in haematological and mucocutaneous domains (0.61 (0.39 to 0.97) and 0.50 (0.31 to 0.81)), baseline damage (SDI>1 vs =0) (0.38 (0.16 to 0.91)) and 24-hour urine protein (0.63 (0.50 to 0.80)). LN duration 2-4 years (0.43 (0.19 to 0.97) vs <1 year) and 24-hour urine protein (0.63 (0.45 to 0.89)) were negative predictors of CRR. LN duration 2-4 years (0.45 (0.24 to 0.83) vs <1 year) negatively predicted PRR. The AUROCs of models for improvement, CRR and PRR were 0.56, 0.55 and 0.51 respectively.<h4>Conclusions</h4>Baseline variables predicted 6-month outcomes in patients with SLE. While the modest performance of models emphasises the need for new biomarkers to advance this field, the factors identified can help identify those patients who may require novel treatment strategies.

Item Type:	Article
Uncontrolled Keywords:	MASTERPLANS Consortium, Kidney, Humans, Lupus Nephritis, Lupus Erythematosus, Systemic, Hemoglobins, Cohort Studies
Divisions:	Faculty of Health and Life Sciences Faculty of Health and Life Sciences > Institute of Life Courses and Medical Sciences
Depositing User:	Symplectic Admin
Date Deposited:	25 Mar 2024 10:17
Last Modified:	25 Mar 2024 10:17
DOI:	10.1136/lupus-2021-000584
Related URLs:	Author Publisher
URI:	https://livrepository.liverpool.ac.uk/id/eprint/3179818