Tropical cyclone activity over Madagascar during the late nineteenth century



Nash, David J, Pribyl, Kathleen, Klein, Jørgen, Endfield, Georgina H ORCID: 0000-0001-6052-2204, Kniveton, Dominic R and Adamson, George CD
(2015) Tropical cyclone activity over Madagascar during the late nineteenth century. International Journal of Climatology, 35 (11). pp. 3249-3261.

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Abstract

<jats:title>ABSTRACT</jats:title><jats:p>Tropical cyclones (<jats:styled-content style="fixed-case">TCs</jats:styled-content>) represent the most significant natural hazard for the economy and population of Madagascar. Planning for the impacts of future cyclone strikes requires a detailed understanding of the frequency of destructive storms in the past. In this paper, we utilise historical documentary materials to construct an initial framework of <jats:styled-content style="fixed-case">TCs</jats:styled-content> making landfall on Madagascar during the latter half of the 19th century. The study focuses on 1862–1900 as this is the period of most extensive documentary records. Accounts of storm damage contained within historical sources are used to reconstruct <jats:styled-content style="fixed-case">TC</jats:styled-content> tracks over land, with details of wind damage converted into Fujita (F) Scale classes to classify <jats:styled-content style="fixed-case">TC</jats:styled-content> intensity. A total of 20 <jats:styled-content style="fixed-case">TCs</jats:styled-content> are identified, of which only 17 are included within the <jats:styled-content style="fixed-case">IBTrACS</jats:styled-content> dataset for the southwest Indian Ocean. The <jats:styled-content style="fixed-case">TCs</jats:styled-content> of 13–14 March 1872 and 28 January–1 February 1893 were the most destructive of the late 19th century, with <jats:styled-content style="fixed-case">F3</jats:styled-content>+ levels of wind damage identified from historical accounts. We compare our results with data for <jats:styled-content style="fixed-case">TCs</jats:styled-content> within the <jats:styled-content style="fixed-case">IBTrACS</jats:styled-content> dataset that made landfall on Madagascar during the period 1970–2012. This comparison suggests that (1) fewer <jats:styled-content style="fixed-case">TCs</jats:styled-content> made landfall during the 19th century compared with the post‐satellite era, but that of these (2) a greater proportion appear to have crossed the northeast of the island. There is no significant correlation between numbers of landfalling <jats:styled-content style="fixed-case">TCs</jats:styled-content> and either mean annual <jats:styled-content style="fixed-case">SOI</jats:styled-content> or <jats:styled-content style="fixed-case">DMI</jats:styled-content>. We conclude with a consideration of additional archival collections that may be used in future investigations to enhance our chronology.</jats:p>

Item Type: Article
Depositing User: Symplectic Admin
Date Deposited: 01 Mar 2017 07:35
Last Modified: 31 Oct 2023 03:03
DOI: 10.1002/joc.4204
Related URLs:
URI: https://livrepository.liverpool.ac.uk/id/eprint/3006110