Multicenter External Validation of the Liverpool Uveal Melanoma Prognosticator Online: An OOG Collaborative Study.



Cunha Rola, Alda, Taktak, Azzam, Eleuteri, Antonio, Kalirai, Helen, Heimann, Heinrich, Hussain, Rumana, Bonnett, Laura J, Hill, Christopher J, Traynor, Matthew, Jager, Martine J
et al (show 21 more authors) (2020) Multicenter External Validation of the Liverpool Uveal Melanoma Prognosticator Online: An OOG Collaborative Study. Cancers, 12 (2).

WarningThere is a more recent version of this item available.
[img] Text
cancers-675911-final .docx - Author Accepted Manuscript

Download (664kB)

Abstract

Uveal melanoma (UM) is fatal in ~50% of patients as a result of disseminated disease. This study aims to externally validate the Liverpool Uveal Melanoma Prognosticator Online V3 (LUMPO3) to determine its reliability in predicting survival after treatment for choroidal melanoma when utilizing external data from other ocular oncology centers. Anonymized data of 1836 UM patients from seven international ocular oncology centers were analyzed with LUMPO3 to predict the 10-year survival for each patient in each external dataset. The analysts were masked to the patient outcomes. Model predictions were sent to an independent statistician to evaluate LUMPO3's performance using discrimination and calibration methods. LUMPO3's ability to discriminate between UM patients who died of metastatic UM and those who were still alive was fair-to-good, with C-statistics ranging from 0.64 to 0.85 at year 1. The pooled estimate for all external centers was 0.72 (95% confidence interval: 0.68 to 0.75). Agreement between observed and predicted survival probabilities was generally good given differences in case mix and survival rates between different centers. Despite the differences between the international cohorts of patients with primary UM, LUMPO3 is a valuable tool for predicting all-cause mortality in this disease when using data from external centers.

Item Type: Article
Depositing User: Symplectic Admin
Date Deposited: 02 Mar 2020 11:22
Last Modified: 19 Jan 2023 00:00
DOI: 10.3390/cancers12020477
URI: https://livrepository.liverpool.ac.uk/id/eprint/3076887

Available Versions of this Item