Modelling bluetongue virus transmission between farms using animal and vector movements.



Turner, Joanne ORCID: 0000-0002-0258-2353, Bowers, Roger G and Baylis, Matthew
(2012) Modelling bluetongue virus transmission between farms using animal and vector movements. Scientific reports, 2. 319 - ?.

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Abstract

Bluetongue is a notifiable disease of ruminants which, in 2007, occurred for the first time in England. We present the first model for bluetongue that explicitly incorporates farm to farm movements of the two main hosts, as well as vector dispersal. The model also includes a seasonal vector to host ratio and dynamic restriction zones that evolve as infection is detected. Batch movements of sheep were included by modelling degree of mixing at markets. We investigate the transmission of bluetongue virus between farms in eastern England (the focus of the outbreak). Results indicate that most parameters affecting outbreak size relate to vectors and that the infection generally cannot be maintained without between-herd vector transmission. Movement restrictions are effective at reducing outbreak size, and a targeted approach would be as effective as a total movement ban. The model framework is flexible and can be adapted to other vector-borne diseases of livestock.

Item Type: Article
Uncontrolled Keywords: Animals, Bluetongue, Disease Outbreaks, Disease Vectors, Models, Theoretical, United Kingdom
Depositing User: Symplectic Admin
Date Deposited: 11 Apr 2016 14:43
Last Modified: 18 Sep 2021 22:10
DOI: 10.1038/srep00319
URI: https://livrepository.liverpool.ac.uk/id/eprint/3000271