Region-Specific Assessment, Adjustment, and Weighting of Ground-Motion Prediction Models: Application to the 2015 Swiss Seismic-Hazard Maps

Edwards, Benjamin ORCID: 0000-0001-5648-8015, Cauzzi, Carlo, Danciu, Laurentiu and Fah, Donat (2016) Region-Specific Assessment, Adjustment, and Weighting of Ground-Motion Prediction Models: Application to the 2015 Swiss Seismic-Hazard Maps. BULLETIN OF THE SEISMOLOGICAL SOCIETY OF AMERICA, 106 (4). pp. 1840-1857.

Text
Region-Specific Assessment, Adjustment, and Weighting.pdf - Published version
Download (1MB)

Official URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1785/0120150367

Abstract

We present a strategy for the region-specific assessment, adjustment, and weighting of ground-motion prediction models, with application to the 2015 Swiss national seismic-hazard maps. The models are provided within a logic-tree framework adopted for the probabilistic seismic-hazard analysis (PSHA). Through this framework, we consider both aleatory and epistemic uncertainties in ground-motion prediction in Switzerland, a region of low-to-moderate seismicity and consequently data poor in terms of strong-motion records. We use both empirical models developed using global strong-motion data and stochastic simulation models calibrated to local seismicity, characteristic wave-propagation effects, and site conditions. The empirical models were adjusted to account for (a) the selected hazard reference rock velocity model (using VS−κ0 adjustments) and (b) the median instrumental ground-motion data at low magnitudes. The use of a carefully calibrated simulation model and VS−κ0 adjusted empirical ground-motion prediction equations allowed us to precisely define the reference-rock profile, upon which subsequent analyses, such as microzonation and site-specific hazard, can be applied without uncertainty related to the reference condition. We implemented partially nonergodic aleatory uncertainties in groundmotion prediction through the single-station sigma approach. This strategy, complemented with the known reference rock condition, leads to significant reductions in the contribution of uncertainty in ground-motion characterization to PSHA in Switzerland. However, the application of the methodological framework outlined herein extends to any region, particularly those of low-to-moderate seismicity.

Item Type:	Article
Depositing User:	Symplectic Admin
Date Deposited:	12 Jul 2016 10:33
Last Modified:	19 Jan 2023 07:36
DOI:	10.1785/0120150367
Related URLs:	Author Publisher
URI:	https://livrepository.liverpool.ac.uk/id/eprint/3001483