Wilkinson, RR, Ball, FG and Sharkey, KJ ORCID: 0000-0002-7210-9246
(2016)
The deterministic Kermack‒McKendrick model bounds the general stochastic epidemic.
Journal of Applied Probability, 53 (4).
pp. 1031-1040.
This is the latest version of this item.
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1602.01730v3.pdf - Author Accepted Manuscript Available under License : See the attached licence file. Download (182kB) |
Abstract
We prove that, for Poisson transmission and recovery processes, the classic susceptible→infected→recovered (SIR) epidemic model of Kermack and McKendrick provides, for any given time t>0, a strict lower bound on the expected number of susceptibles and a strict upper bound on the expected number of recoveries in the general stochastic SIR epidemic. The proof is based on the recent message passing representation of SIR epidemics applied to a complete graph.
Item Type: | Article |
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Uncontrolled Keywords: | General stochastic epidemic, Deterministic general epidemic, SIR, Kermack‒McKendrick, Message passing, Bound |
Depositing User: | Symplectic Admin |
Date Deposited: | 11 Dec 2017 09:09 |
Last Modified: | 19 Jan 2023 06:48 |
DOI: | 10.1017/jpr.2016.62 |
Related URLs: | |
URI: | https://livrepository.liverpool.ac.uk/id/eprint/3013518 |
Available Versions of this Item
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The deterministic Kermack-McKendrick model bounds the general stochastic epidemic. (deposited 13 Nov 2017 08:25)
- The deterministic Kermack‒McKendrick model bounds the general stochastic epidemic. (deposited 11 Dec 2017 09:09) [Currently Displayed]