Managing uncertainties through scenario analysis in strategic environmental assessment

Khosravi, Fatemah ORCID: 0000-0002-3453-1729 and Jha Thakur, UJ ORCID: 0000-0001-6767-1210
(2019) Managing uncertainties through scenario analysis in strategic environmental assessment. Journal of Environmental Planning and Management, 62 (6). pp. 979-1000.

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Planning for the future is uncertain, and scenario analysis is a method of coping with the uncertainties of future plans. This paper addresses how to deal with future uncertainties by using scenario analysis as a possible approach for conducting a strategic environmental assessment (SEA). Although scenario-based approaches have been linked to strategic planning and SEA, this paper for the first time proposes how a combined approach may be implemented using specific tools and methodologies and, further on, it also implements the first three stages of the six stages proposed for the ‘scenario-based strategic planning’ approach. This work is an attempt to standardize SEA and scenario analysis as a combined approach. The three stages are tested within the Tourism Development Plan of the Iranian province of Gilan, which has been selected as a case study.

Item Type: Article
Uncontrolled Keywords: tourism planning, strategic environmental assessment (SEA), scenario analysis, sustainable tourism, Iran
Depositing User: Symplectic Admin
Date Deposited: 30 Oct 2018 10:59
Last Modified: 19 Jan 2023 06:33
DOI: 10.1080/09640568.2018.1456913
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