Climatic influence on anthrax suitability in warming northern latitudes



Walsh, MG, de Smallen, AW and Mor, SM ORCID: 0000-0003-0121-2016
(2018) Climatic influence on anthrax suitability in warming northern latitudes. Scientific Reports, 8 (1). 9269-.

Access the full-text of this item by clicking on the Open Access link.

Abstract

Climate change is impacting ecosystem structure and function, with potentially drastic downstream effects on human and animal health. Emerging zoonotic diseases are expected to be particularly vulnerable to climate and biodiversity disturbance. Anthrax is an archetypal zoonosis that manifests its most significant burden on vulnerable pastoralist communities. The current study sought to investigate the influence of temperature increases on geographic anthrax suitability in the temperate, boreal, and arctic North, where observed climate impact has been rapid. This study also explored the influence of climate relative to more traditional factors, such as livestock distribution, ungulate biodiversity, and soil-water balance, in demarcating risk. Machine learning was used to model anthrax suitability in northern latitudes. The model identified climate, livestock density and wild ungulate species richness as the most influential features in predicting suitability. These findings highlight the significance of warming temperatures for anthrax ecology in northern latitudes, and suggest potential mitigating effects of interventions targeting megafauna biodiversity conservation in grassland ecosystems, and animal health promotion among small to midsize livestock herds.

Item Type: Article
Uncontrolled Keywords: bacterial infection, climate change, ecology, epidemiology
Depositing User: Symplectic Admin
Date Deposited: 19 Jun 2018 08:38
Last Modified: 19 Jan 2023 01:31
DOI: 10.1038/s41598-018-27604-w
Open Access URL: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-018-27604-w
Related URLs:
URI: https://livrepository.liverpool.ac.uk/id/eprint/3022781