Potential impact of diabetes prevention on mortality and futureburden of dementia and disability: a modelling study



Bandosz, Piotr ORCID: 0000-0002-6395-6216, Ahmadi-Abhari, Sara, Guzman-Castillo, Maria, Pearson-Stuttard, Jonathan, Collins, Brendan ORCID: 0000-0002-3023-8189, Whittaker, Hannah, Shipley, Martin J, Capewell, Simon ORCID: 0000-0003-3960-8999, Brunner, Eric J and O'Flaherty, Martin ORCID: 0000-0001-8944-4131
(2020) Potential impact of diabetes prevention on mortality and futureburden of dementia and disability: a modelling study. DIABETOLOGIA, 63 (1). 104 - 115.

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Abstract

Methods We used a probabilistic multi-state, open cohort Markov model to integrate observed trends in diabetes, cardiovascular disease and dementia to forecast the occurrence of disability and dementia up to the year 2060. Model input data were taken from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing, Office for National Statistics vital data and published effect estimates for health-state transition probabilities. The baseline scenario corresponded to recent trends in obesity: a 26% increase in the number of people with diabetes by 2060. This scenario was evaluated against three alternative projected trends in diabetes: increases of 49%, 20% and 7%. Results Our results suggest that changes in the trend in diabetes prevalence will lead to changes in mortality and incidence of dementia and disability, which will become visible after 10–15 years. If the relative prevalence of diabetes increases 49% by 2060, expected additional deaths would be approximately 255,000 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 236,000–272,200), with 85,900 (71,500–101,600) cumulative additional cases of dementia and 104,900 (85,900–125,400) additional cases of disability. With a smaller relative increase in diabetes prevalence (7% increase by 2060), we estimated 222,200 (205,700–237,300) fewer deaths, and 77,000 (64,300–90,800) and 93,300 (76,700–111,400) fewer additional cases of dementia and disability, respectively, than the baseline case of a 26% increase in diabetes. Conclusions/interpretation Reducing the burden of diabetes could result in substantial reductions in the incidence of dementia and disability over the medium to long term.

Item Type: Article
Uncontrolled Keywords: Dementia, Diabetes, Disability, Forecast, Modelling study
Depositing User: Symplectic Admin
Date Deposited: 02 Dec 2019 13:48
Last Modified: 16 Apr 2021 01:11
DOI: 10.1007/s00125-019-05015-4
Open Access URL: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00125-019-05015-4
Related URLs:
URI: https://livrepository.liverpool.ac.uk/id/eprint/3064442