Vousdoukas, Michalis I, Mentaschi, Lorenzo, Voukouvalas, Evangelos, Verlaan, Martin, Jevrejeva, Svetlana, Jackson, Luke P and Feyen, Luc
(2018)
Global probabilistic projections of extreme sea levels show intensification of coastal flood hazard.
NATURE COMMUNICATIONS, 9 (1).
2360-.
|
Text
Global probabilistic projections of extreme sea levels show intensification of coastal flood hazard.pdf - Published version Download (4MB) | Preview |
Abstract
Global warming is expected to drive increasing extreme sea levels (ESLs) and flood risk along the world's coastlines. In this work we present probabilistic projections of ESLs for the present century taking into consideration changes in mean sea level, tides, wind-waves, and storm surges. Between the year 2000 and 2100 we project a very likely increase of the global average 100-year ESL of 34-76 cm under a moderate-emission-mitigation-policy scenario and of 58-172 cm under a business as usual scenario. Rising ESLs are mostly driven by thermal expansion, followed by contributions from ice mass-loss from glaciers, and ice-sheets in Greenland and Antarctica. Under these scenarios ESL rise would render a large part of the tropics exposed annually to the present-day 100-year event from 2050. By the end of this century this applies to most coastlines around the world, implying unprecedented flood risk levels unless timely adaptation measures are taken.
| Item Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | 13 Climate Action |
| Depositing User: | Symplectic Admin |
| Date Deposited: | 04 Dec 2019 13:55 |
| Last Modified: | 16 Mar 2024 23:24 |
| DOI: | 10.1038/s41467-018-04692-w |
| Open Access URL: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-04692-w |
| Related URLs: | |
| URI: | https://livrepository.liverpool.ac.uk/id/eprint/3064781 |
Dimensions
Dimensions
