Quantification of the Uncertainty in Coastal Storm Hazard Predictions Due to Wave-Current Interaction and Wind Forcing



Lyddon, Charlotte ORCID: 0000-0003-4254-3049, Brown, Jenny M, Leonardi, Nicoletta, Saulter, Andrew and Plater, Andrew J ORCID: 0000-0001-7043-227X
(2019) Quantification of the Uncertainty in Coastal Storm Hazard Predictions Due to Wave-Current Interaction and Wind Forcing. GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, 46 (24). pp. 14576-14585.

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Abstract

<jats:title>Abstract</jats:title><jats:p>Coastal flood warning and design of coastal protection schemes rely on accurate estimations of water level and waves during hurricanes and violent storms. These estimations frequently use numerical models, which, for computational reasons, neglect the interaction between the hydrodynamic and wave fields. Here, we show that neglecting such interactions, or local effects of atmospheric forcing, causes large uncertainties, which could have financial and operational consequences because flood warnings are potentially missed or protection schemes underdesigned. Using the Severn Estuary, SW England, we show that exclusion of locally generated winds underestimates high water significant wave height by up to 90.1%, high water level by 1.5%, and hazard proxy (water level + 1/2 significant wave height) by 9.1%. The uncertainty in water level and waves is quantified using a system to model tide‐surge‐wave conditions, Delft3D‐FLOW‐WAVE in a series of eight model simulations for four historic storm events.</jats:p>

Item Type: Article
Uncontrolled Keywords: Delft3D, estuarine dynamics, coupled model, coastal wave hazard, coastal flood hazard, storm impact modeling
Depositing User: Symplectic Admin
Date Deposited: 09 Dec 2019 09:55
Last Modified: 18 Sep 2023 09:03
DOI: 10.1029/2019GL086123
Open Access URL: https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL086123
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URI: https://livrepository.liverpool.ac.uk/id/eprint/3065217