Rozhnova, Ganna 
ORCID: 0000-0002-6725-7359, Dorp, Christiaan van, Bruijning-Verhagen, Patricia ORCID: 0000-0003-4105-9669, Bootsma, Martin, de Wijgert, Janneke van, Bonten, Marc and Kretzschmar, Mirjam ORCID: 0000-0002-4394-7697
(2021)
Model-based evaluation of school- and non-school-related measures to control the COVID-19 pandemic.
Nature Communications.
Abstract
The role of school-based contacts in the epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2 is incompletely understood. We used an age-structured transmission model fitted to age-specific seroprevalence and hospital admission data to assess the effects of school-based measures at different time points during the COVID-19 pandemic in the Netherlands. Our analyses suggest that the impact of measures reducing school-based contacts depends on the remaining opportunities to reduce non-school-based contacts. If opportunities to reduce the effective reproduction number (R e ) with non-school-based measures are exhausted or undesired and R e is still close to 1, the additional benefit of school-based measures may be considerable, particularly among older school children. As two examples, we demonstrate that keeping schools closed after the summer holidays in 2020, in the absence of other measures, would not have prevented the second pandemic wave in autumn 2020 but closing schools in November 2020 could have reduced R e below 1, with unchanged non-school-based contacts.
| Item Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | Prevention, 3 Good Health and Well Being |
| Divisions: | Faculty of Health and Life Sciences Faculty of Health and Life Sciences > Institute of Infection, Veterinary and Ecological Sciences |
| Depositing User: | Symplectic Admin |
| Date Deposited: | 07 Apr 2021 09:42 |
| Last Modified: | 17 Mar 2024 21:02 |
| DOI: | 10.21203/rs.3.rs-130264/v1 |
| Open Access URL: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC79550... |
| Related URLs: | |
| URI: | https://livrepository.liverpool.ac.uk/id/eprint/3118453 |
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