Analytical approximation for invasion and endemic thresholds, and the optimal control of epidemics in spatially explicit individual-based models



Suprunenko, Yevhen F, Cornell, Stephen J ORCID: 0000-0001-6026-5236 and Gilligan, Christopher A
(2021) Analytical approximation for invasion and endemic thresholds, and the optimal control of epidemics in spatially explicit individual-based models. JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY INTERFACE, 18 (176). 20200966-.

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Abstract

Computer simulations of individual-based models are frequently used to compare strategies for the control of epidemics spreading through spatially distributed populations. However, computer simulations can be slow to implement for newly emerging epidemics, delaying rapid exploration of different intervention scenarios, and do not immediately give general insights, for example, to identify the control strategy with a minimal socio-economic cost. Here, we resolve this problem by applying an analytical approximation to a general epidemiological, stochastic, spatially explicit SIR(S) model where the infection is dispersed according to a finite-ranged dispersal kernel. We derive analytical conditions for a pathogen to invade a spatially explicit host population and to become endemic. To derive general insights about the likely impact of optimal control strategies on invasion and persistence: first, we distinguish between 'spatial' and 'non-spatial' control measures, based on their impact on the dispersal kernel; second, we quantify the relative impact of control interventions on the epidemic; third, we consider the relative socio-economic cost of control interventions. Overall, our study shows a trade-off between the two types of control interventions and a vaccination strategy. We identify the optimal strategy to control invading and endemic diseases with minimal socio-economic cost across all possible parameter combinations. We also demonstrate the necessary characteristics of exit strategies from control interventions. The modelling framework presented here can be applied to a wide class of diseases in populations of humans, animals and plants.

Item Type: Article
Uncontrolled Keywords: basic reproduction number, endemic equilibrium, spatially explicit systems, epidemic control, optimal control, lockdown exit strategy
Divisions: Faculty of Health and Life Sciences
Faculty of Health and Life Sciences > Institute of Infection, Veterinary and Ecological Sciences
Depositing User: Symplectic Admin
Date Deposited: 07 Apr 2021 09:34
Last Modified: 18 Jan 2023 22:54
DOI: 10.1098/rsif.2020.0966
Open Access URL: https://doi.org/10.1098/rsif.2020.0966
Related URLs:
URI: https://livrepository.liverpool.ac.uk/id/eprint/3118522