Vakilifard, Negar, Turner, Katherine, Williams, Ric 
ORCID: 0000-0002-3180-7558, Holden, Philip ORCID: 0000-0002-2369-0062, Edwards, Neil and Beerling, David
(2021)
Large ensemble assessment of how the global surface warming response to cumulative carbon differs for negative and positive carbon emissions  .
Abstract
<jats:p>&lt;p&gt;The controls of the effective transient climate response (TCRE), defined in terms of the dependence of surface warming since the pre-industrial to the cumulative carbon emission, is explained in terms of climate model experiments for a scenario including positive emissions and then negative emission over a period of 400 years. We employ a pre-calibrated ensemble of GENIE, grid-enabled integrated Earth system model, consisting of 86 members to determine the process of controlling TCRE in both CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; emissions and drawdown phases. Our results are based on the GENIE simulations with historical forcing from AD 850 including land use change, and the future forcing defined by CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; emissions and a non-CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; radiative forcing timeseries. We present the results for the point-source carbon capture and storage (CCS) scenario as a negative emission scenario, following the medium representative concentration pathway (RCP4.5), assuming that the rate of emission drawdown is 2 PgC/yr CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; for the duration of 100 years. The climate response differs between the periods of positive and negative carbon emissions with a greater ensemble spread during the negative carbon emissions. The controls of the spread in ensemble responses are explained in terms of a combination of thermal processes (involving ocean heat uptake and physical climate feedback), radiative processes (saturation in radiative forcing from CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; and non-CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; contributions) and carbon dependences (involving terrestrial and ocean carbon uptake).&amp;#160;&amp;#160;&lt;/p&gt;</jats:p>
| Item Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | 37 Earth Sciences, 3701 Atmospheric Sciences, 13 Climate Action |
| Divisions: | Faculty of Science and Engineering > School of Environmental Sciences |
| Depositing User: | Symplectic Admin |
| Date Deposited: | 16 Mar 2022 17:25 |
| Last Modified: | 15 Jun 2024 02:02 |
| DOI: | 10.5194/egusphere-egu21-12718 |
| Open Access URL: | https://meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU21/EGU2... |
| Related URLs: | |
| URI: | https://livrepository.liverpool.ac.uk/id/eprint/3150933 |
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