Large ensemble assessment of how the global surface warming response to cumulative carbon differs for negative and positive carbon emissions  



Vakilifard, Negar, Turner, Katherine, Williams, Ric ORCID: 0000-0002-3180-7558, Holden, Philip ORCID: 0000-0002-2369-0062, Edwards, Neil and Beerling, David
(2021) Large ensemble assessment of how the global surface warming response to cumulative carbon differs for negative and positive carbon emissions  .

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Abstract

<jats:p>&amp;lt;p&amp;gt;The controls of the effective transient climate response (TCRE), defined in terms of the dependence of surface warming since the pre-industrial to the cumulative carbon emission, is explained in terms of climate model experiments for a scenario including positive emissions and then negative emission over a period of 400 years. We employ a pre-calibrated ensemble of GENIE, grid-enabled integrated Earth system model, consisting of 86 members to determine the process of controlling TCRE in both CO&amp;lt;sub&amp;gt;2&amp;lt;/sub&amp;gt; emissions and drawdown phases. Our results are based on the GENIE simulations with historical forcing from AD 850 including land use change, and the future forcing defined by CO&amp;lt;sub&amp;gt;2&amp;lt;/sub&amp;gt; emissions and a non-CO&amp;lt;sub&amp;gt;2&amp;lt;/sub&amp;gt; radiative forcing timeseries. We present the results for the point-source carbon capture and storage (CCS) scenario as a negative emission scenario, following the medium representative concentration pathway (RCP4.5), assuming that the rate of emission drawdown is 2 PgC/yr CO&amp;lt;sub&amp;gt;2&amp;lt;/sub&amp;gt; for the duration of 100 years. The climate response differs between the periods of positive and negative carbon emissions with a greater ensemble spread during the negative carbon emissions. The controls of the spread in ensemble responses are explained in terms of a combination of thermal processes (involving ocean heat uptake and physical climate feedback), radiative processes (saturation in radiative forcing from CO&amp;lt;sub&amp;gt;2&amp;lt;/sub&amp;gt; and non-CO&amp;lt;sub&amp;gt;2&amp;lt;/sub&amp;gt; contributions) and carbon dependences (involving terrestrial and ocean carbon uptake).&amp;amp;#160;&amp;amp;#160;&amp;lt;/p&amp;gt;</jats:p>

Item Type: Article
Uncontrolled Keywords: 13 Climate Action
Divisions: Faculty of Science and Engineering > School of Environmental Sciences
Depositing User: Symplectic Admin
Date Deposited: 16 Mar 2022 17:25
Last Modified: 20 Apr 2024 04:45
DOI: 10.5194/egusphere-egu21-12718
Open Access URL: https://meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU21/EGU2...
Related URLs:
URI: https://livrepository.liverpool.ac.uk/id/eprint/3150933