Estimated transmissibility and impact of SARS-CoV-2 lineage B.1.1.7 in England.


Davies, Nicholas G ORCID: 0000-0002-1740-1412, Abbott, Sam ORCID: 0000-0001-8057-8037, Barnard, Rosanna C ORCID: 0000-0001-7602-0401, Jarvis, Christopher I ORCID: 0000-0002-0812-2446, Kucharski, Adam J, Munday, James D ORCID: 0000-0002-6206-7134, Pearson, Carl AB ORCID: 0000-0003-0701-7860, Russell, Timothy W ORCID: 0000-0001-5610-6080, Tully, Damien C ORCID: 0000-0002-7620-9340, Washburne, Alex D ORCID: 0000-0003-4047-3411 et al (show 15 more authors) (2021) Estimated transmissibility and impact of SARS-CoV-2 lineage B.1.1.7 in England. Science (New York, N.Y.), 372 (6538). eabg3055-.

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Abstract

A severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variant, VOC 202012/01 (lineage B.1.1.7), emerged in southeast England in September 2020 and is rapidly spreading toward fixation. Using a variety of statistical and dynamic modeling approaches, we estimate that this variant has a 43 to 90% (range of 95% credible intervals, 38 to 130%) higher reproduction number than preexisting variants. A fitted two-strain dynamic transmission model shows that VOC 202012/01 will lead to large resurgences of COVID-19 cases. Without stringent control measures, including limited closure of educational institutions and a greatly accelerated vaccine rollout, COVID-19 hospitalizations and deaths across England in the first 6 months of 2021 were projected to exceed those in 2020. VOC 202012/01 has spread globally and exhibits a similar transmission increase (59 to 74%) in Denmark, Switzerland, and the United States.

Item Type: Article
Uncontrolled Keywords: CMMID COVID-19 Working Group, COVID-19 Genomics UK (COG-UK) Consortium, Humans, Viral Load, Severity of Illness Index, Communicable Disease Control, Mutation, Models, Theoretical, Socioeconomic Factors, Adolescent, Adult, Aged, Aged, 80 and over, Middle Aged, Child, Child, Preschool, Infant, United States, Europe, England, Female, Male, Basic Reproduction Number, Young Adult, COVID-19, SARS-CoV-2, COVID-19 Vaccines
Divisions: Faculty of Health and Life Sciences
Faculty of Health and Life Sciences > Institute of Infection, Veterinary and Ecological Sciences
Depositing User: Symplectic Admin
Date Deposited: 09 May 2022 08:39
Last Modified: 16 Dec 2023 03:36
DOI: 10.1126/science.abg3055
Open Access URL: https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abg3055
Related URLs:
URI: https://livrepository.liverpool.ac.uk/id/eprint/3154480
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