Exponential growth, high prevalence of SARS-CoV-2, and vaccine effectiveness associated with the Delta variant



Elliott, Paul ORCID: 0000-0002-7511-5684, Haw, David ORCID: 0000-0002-9228-0542, Wang, Haowei ORCID: 0000-0003-4753-8783, Eales, Oliver ORCID: 0000-0002-8086-4495, Walters, Caroline E ORCID: 0000-0003-1882-0886, Ainslie, Kylie EC ORCID: 0000-0001-5419-7206, Atchison, Christina ORCID: 0000-0001-8304-7389, Fronterre, Claudio ORCID: 0000-0001-6723-9727, Diggle, Peter J ORCID: 0000-0003-3521-5020, Page, Andrew J ORCID: 0000-0001-6919-6062
et al (show 10 more authors) (2021) Exponential growth, high prevalence of SARS-CoV-2, and vaccine effectiveness associated with the Delta variant. Science, 374 (6574).

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Abstract

<jats:title>Vaccination and disease</jats:title> <jats:p> The United Kingdom has high rates of vaccination for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), exceeding 80% of adults. As immunity wanes and social distancing is relaxed, how are rates of illness and severe disease affected by more infectious variants? Elliott <jats:italic>et al</jats:italic> . used reverse transcription PCR data from the REACT-1 study, which showed exponential transmission as the Alpha variant (B.1.1.7) was replaced by the Delta variant (B.1.617.2). After adjusting for age and other variables, vaccine effectiveness for the new variant averaged 55% in June and July of 2020. Despite the slower growth of the pandemic in the summer, it looks as if increased indoor mixing in the autumn will sustain transmission of the Delta variant despite high levels of adult vaccination. —CA </jats:p>

Item Type: Article
Divisions: Faculty of Health and Life Sciences
Faculty of Health and Life Sciences > Institute of Infection, Veterinary and Ecological Sciences
Depositing User: Symplectic Admin
Date Deposited: 09 May 2022 08:49
Last Modified: 18 Jan 2023 21:03
DOI: 10.1126/science.abl9551
Open Access URL: https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abl9551
Related URLs:
URI: https://livrepository.liverpool.ac.uk/id/eprint/3154483