Risk of Paediatric Multisystem Inflammatory Syndrome (PIMS-TS) During the SARS-CoV-2 <i>Alpha</i> and <i>Delta</i> Variant Waves: National Observational Study, 2020-21, England

Shingleton, Joseph, Burton, Lucy, Williams, Hannah, Finnie, Thomas, Bennett, Emma, Birrell, Paul, Kenny, Simon, Watson-Koszel, Tiffany, Viner, Russell, Arditi, Moshe
et al (show 20 more authors) (2022) Risk of Paediatric Multisystem Inflammatory Syndrome (PIMS-TS) During the SARS-CoV-2 <i>Alpha</i> and <i>Delta</i> Variant Waves: National Observational Study, 2020-21, England. [Preprint]

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Background: Paediatric Multisystem Inflammatory Syndrome (PIMS-TS) is a rare life-threatening complication that typically occurs several weeks after SARS-CoV-2 infection in children and young people (CYP). We used national and regional-level data from the COVID-19 pandemic wave in England to develop and optimise a model to predict PIMS-TS cases in subsequent waves.<br><br>Methods: SARS-CoV-2 infections in CYP aged 0-15 years in England were estimated using the PHE-Cambridge real-time model. PIMS-TS cases were identified through the British Paediatric Surveillance Unit during the first pandemic wave (March-June 2020). Since November 2020, cases were identified through Secondary Uses Services (SUS), a national healthcare activity dataset. A predictive model was developed to estimate PIMS-TS risk and lag times after SARS-CoV-2 infection for the Alpha (weeks 1-10, 2021) and Delta (weeks 22-30, 2022) waves.<br><br>Findings: During the Alpha wave, the model accurately predicted PIMS-TS cases (506 (95% CI: 491-531) vs 502 observed cases), with a median estimated the risk of 0·038% (IQR, 0·037-0·041%; 38/100,000 infections) of paediatric SARS-CoV-2 infections. For the Delta wave, the median risk of PIMS-TS was significantly lower at 0·026% (IQR, 0·025-0·029%; 27/100,000 infections) , with 212 observed PIMS-TS cases compared to 450 predicted by the model during June-October 2021.<br><br>Interpretation: We developed a model that accurately predicted national and regional PIMS-TS cases in CYP during the Alpha wave. PIMS-TS cases were, however, 53% lower than predicted during the Delta wave. Further studies are needed to understand the mechanisms of the observed lower risk with the Delta variant.<br><br>Funding: None<br><br>Conflicts of interest: None<br><br>Ethical Approval: UKHSA has legal permission under Regulation 3 of The Health Service (Control of Patient Information) Regulations 2002, to conduct national surveillance of communicable diseases in England and, as such, individual patient consent is not required.

Item Type: Preprint
Additional Information: Source info: THELANCETID-D-22-00846
Uncontrolled Keywords: COVID-19, MIS-C, PIMS-TS
Divisions: Faculty of Health and Life Sciences
Faculty of Health and Life Sciences > Institute of Infection, Veterinary and Ecological Sciences
Depositing User: Symplectic Admin
Date Deposited: 17 Nov 2022 09:20
Last Modified: 24 Mar 2023 10:26
DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.4094844
Open Access URL: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_i...
Related URLs:
URI: https://livrepository.liverpool.ac.uk/id/eprint/3166246