Deterministic epidemic models overestimate the basic reproduction number of observed outbreaks

Ali, Wajid ORCID: 0000-0001-5533-1315, Overton, Christopher E ORCID: 0000-0002-8433-4010, Wilkinson, Robert R and Sharkey, Kieran J ORCID: 0000-0002-7210-9246 (2024) Deterministic epidemic models overestimate the basic reproduction number of observed outbreaks INFECTIOUS DISEASE MODELLING, 9 (3). pp. 680-688. ISSN 2468-0427, 2468-0427

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Abstract

The basic reproduction number, R<inf>0</inf>, is a well-known quantifier of epidemic spread. However, a class of existing methods for estimating R<inf>0</inf> from incidence data early in the epidemic can lead to an over-estimation of this quantity. In particular, when fitting deterministic models to estimate the rate of spread, we do not account for the stochastic nature of epidemics and that, given the same system, some outbreaks may lead to epidemics and some may not. Typically, an observed epidemic that we wish to control is a major outbreak. This amounts to implicit selection for major outbreaks which leads to the over-estimation problem. We formally characterised the split between major and minor outbreaks by using Otsu's method which provides us with a working definition. We show that by conditioning a ‘deterministic’ model on major outbreaks, we can more reliably estimate the basic reproduction number from an observed epidemic trajectory.

Item Type:	Article
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Estimating R 0, Simple birth -death process, Major outbreak, Conditioned epidemic, Stochastic fade-out
Divisions:	Faculty of Science & Engineering > School of Physical Sciences
Depositing User:	Symplectic Admin
Date Deposited:	30 Apr 2024 08:05
Last Modified:	16 Jun 2026 17:07
DOI:	10.1016/j.idm.2024.02.007
Open Access URL:	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.idm.2024.02.007
Related Websites:	Author Publisher
URI:	https://livrepository.liverpool.ac.uk/id/eprint/3180642
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