Promoting healthy populations as a pandemic preparedness strategy: a simulation study from Mexico

Johnson, R ORCID: 0000-0002-7365-0042, Carnalla, M, Basto-Abreu, A, Haw, D ORCID: 0000-0002-9228-0542, Morgenstern, C ORCID: 0000-0003-3735-1130, Doohan, P, Forchini, G, Hauck, KD ORCID: 0000-0003-3138-4169 and Barrientos-Gutiérrez, T (2024) Promoting healthy populations as a pandemic preparedness strategy: a simulation study from Mexico Lancet Regional Health Americas, 30. 100682-. ISSN 2667-193X, 2667-193X

PDF Promoting healthy populations as a pandemic preparedness strategy a simulation study from Mexico.pdf - Open Access published version Download (448kB) | Preview

Abstract

Background: The underlying health status of populations was a major determinant of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, particularly obesity prevalence. Mexico was one of the most severely affected countries during the COVID-19 pandemic and its obesity prevalence is among the highest in the world. It is unknown by how much the COVID-19 burden could have been reduced if systemic actions had been implemented to reduce excess weight in Mexico before the onset of the pandemic. Methods: Using a dynamic epidemic model based on nationwide data, we compare actual deaths with those under hypothetical scenarios assuming a lower body mass index in the Mexican population, as observed historically. We also model the number of deaths that would have been averted due to earlier implementation of front-of-pack warning labels or due to increases in taxes on sugar-sweetened beverages and non-essential high-energy foods in Mexico. Findings: We estimate that 52.5% (95% prediction interval (PI) 43.2, 61.6%) of COVID-19 deaths were attributable to obesity for adults aged 20–64 and 23.8% (95% PI 18.7, 29.1%) for those aged 65 and over. Had the population BMI distribution remained as it was in 2000, 2006, or 2012, COVID-19 deaths would have been reduced by an expected 20.6% (95% PI 16.9, 24.6%), 9.9% (95% PI 7.3, 12.9%), or 6.9% (95% PI 4.5, 9.5%), respectively. If the food-labelling intervention introduced in 2020 had been introduced in 2018, an expected 6.2% (95% PI 5.2, 7.3%) of COVID-19 deaths would have been averted. If taxes on sugar-sweetened beverages and high-energy foods had been doubled, trebled, or quadrupled in 2018, COVID-19 deaths would have been reduced by an expected 4.1% (95% PI 2.5, 5.7%), 7.9% (95% PI 4.9, 11.0%), or 11.6% (95% PI 7.3, 15.8%), respectively. Interpretation: Public health interventions targeting underlying population health, including non-communicable chronic diseases, is a promising line of action for pandemic preparedness that should be included in all pandemic plans. Funding: This study received funding from Bloomberg Philanthropies, awarded to Juan A. Rivera from the National Institute of Public Health; Community Jameel, the UK Medical Research Council (MRC), Kenneth C Griffin, and the World Health Organization.

Item Type:	Article
Uncontrolled Keywords:	BMI, COVID-19, Epidemic response plan, Obesity, Pandemic preparedness, Population health
Divisions:	Faculty of Science & Engineering Faculty of Science & Engineering > School of Physical Sciences
Depositing User:	Symplectic Admin
Date Deposited:	18 Nov 2024 15:20
Last Modified:	22 May 2026 16:56
DOI:	10.1016/j.lana.2024.100682
Related Websites:	Author Publisher
URI:	https://livrepository.liverpool.ac.uk/id/eprint/3188644
Disclaimer:	The University of Liverpool is not responsible for content contained on other websites from links within repository metadata. Please contact us if you notice anything that appears incorrect or inappropriate.