Evans, Rebecca 
ORCID: 0000-0001-8894-5938, O’Flaherty, Martin, Edi Putra, Gusti Ngurah, Kypridemos, Chris ORCID: 0000-0002-0746-9229, Robinson, Eric ORCID: 0000-0003-3586-5533 and Colombet, Zoé ORCID: 0000-0001-6179-7517
(2024)
The estimated impact of mandatory front-of-pack nutrition labelling policies on adult obesity prevalence and cardiovascular mortality in England: a modelling study
[Preprint]
Abstract
<h4>Objectives</h4> Since 2013, industry-endorsed front-of-pack traffic light labels have been implemented voluntarily on packaged food in the UK. The UK Government is now considering alternative labelling approaches which may be more effective, such as Chile’s mandatory nutrient warning labels. The primary aim of this study was to model the likely impact of implementing mandatory front-of-pack nutrition labels in England on energy intake and consequent population-level obesity, and, secondarily, cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality. <h4>Design</h4> Microsimulation modelling analysis <h4>Setting</h4> England <h4>Model</h4> A microsimulation model (2024–2043) to estimate the impact of changing front-of-pack nutrition labels in England. The two main policy scenarios tested were mandatory implementation of (i) traffic light labels and (ii) nutrient warning labels. For each scenario, the impact of the policy through assumed changes in energy intake due to consumer behaviour change and reformulation was modelled. <h4>Main outcome measures</h4> Change in obesity prevalence (%) and CVD deaths prevented or postponed. <h4>Results</h4> Compared to the baseline scenario (current voluntary implementation of traffic light labelling), mandatory implementation of traffic light labelling was estimated to reduce obesity prevalence in England by 2.28% (95% UI –4.06 to –0.96) and prevent or postpone 17000 (95% UI 4700 to 48000) CVD deaths. Mandatory implementation of nutrient warning labelling was estimated to have a larger impact; a 3.68% (95% UI –9.94 to –0.18) reduction in obesity prevalence and the prevention/postponement of 29000 (95% UI 1200 to 110000) CVD deaths. <h4>Conclusions</h4> This work offers the first modelled estimation of the impact of introducing mandatory front-of-pack nutrition labels on health outcomes in the adult population in England. Findings suggest that mandatory implementation of nutrient warning labels would reduce rates of obesity and CVD deaths, compared to current voluntary or mandatory implementation of traffic light labelling, and should therefore be considered by the UK government. <h4>Funding</h4> European Research Council (Grant reference: PIDS, 8031940).
| Item Type: | Preprint |
|---|---|
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | 4206 Public Health, 32 Biomedical and Clinical Sciences, 3210 Nutrition and Dietetics, 42 Health Sciences, Obesity, Cardiovascular, Nutrition, Heart Disease, Prevention, Stroke, Cardiovascular, 3 Good Health and Well Being |
| Divisions: | Faculty of Health & Life Sciences Faculty of Health & Life Sciences > Inst. Population Health |
| Depositing User: | Symplectic Admin |
| Date Deposited: | 20 Nov 2024 12:25 |
| Last Modified: | 06 Feb 2026 17:07 |
| DOI: | 10.1101/2024.10.14.24315283 |
| Open Access URL: | https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2024.10.14... |
| Related Websites: | |
| URI: | https://livrepository.liverpool.ac.uk/id/eprint/3188772 |
| Disclaimer: | The University of Liverpool is not responsible for content contained on other websites from links within repository metadata. Please contact us if you notice anything that appears incorrect or inappropriate. |
Altmetric
Altmetric