The two-child policy was not associated with an increase in abortions among its target population

Grollman, Christopher, Wickham, Sophie, Mason, Kate ORCID: 0000-0001-5020-5256, Pennington, Andy ORCID: 0000-0002-3455-8825 and Geary, Rebecca ORCID: 0000-0003-1417-1057 (2026) The two-child policy was not associated with an increase in abortions among its target population JOURNAL OF SOCIAL POLICY, 55 (1). pp. 43-61. ISSN 0047-2794, 1469-7823

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Abstract

In 2015 the UK government abolished means-tested child-related social security payments to households for third or subsequent children born from April 2017 (the ‘two-child limit’). From 2017 to 2021 there was a sustained increase in the number of abortions annually in England, following a previously flat trend. Using abortion-level microdata from the Department for Health and Social Care, we analysed whether this increase was primarily among women with two or more existing children in more deprived areas, consistent with being a response to the two-child limit. Descriptive analysis and interrupted time series modelling showed that the increase in numbers of abortions over time was not associated with having more children or living in more deprived areas. Instead, from 2017 onwards the previously declining trend among people with no or one previous births reversed. The pattern of change at area level was nearly identical across deciles of the Index of Multiple Deprivation. The cumulative impoverishing effects of austerity may affect abortion decision-making in England generally, but the two-child limit specifically is not associated with the change that followed its introduction. The primary drivers of recent increases in abortions may be non-material, such as uncertainty about the future beyond immediate financial considerations.

Item Type:	Article
Uncontrolled Keywords:	social security, two-child limit, Universal Credit, tax credits, abortion
Divisions:	Faculty of Health & Life Sciences Faculty of Health & Life Sciences > Inst. Population Health
Depositing User:	Symplectic Admin
Date Deposited:	21 May 2025 09:40
Last Modified:	23 May 2026 10:14
DOI:	10.1017/S004727942500011X
Open Access URL:	https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/journal-of...
Related Websites:	Author Publisher
URI:	https://livrepository.liverpool.ac.uk/id/eprint/3192841
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