Estimating the health impact of menu calorie labelling policy and sugar-sweetened beverage taxation in two European countries: a microsimulation study

Putra, I Gusti Ngurah Edi ORCID: 0000-0002-1014-6949, O'Flaherty, Martin ORCID: 0000-0001-8944-4131, Emmert-Fees, Karl MF, Vasquez, Maria Salve, Evans, Rebecca ORCID: 0000-0001-8894-5938, Peters, Annette, Kypridemos, Chris ORCID: 0000-0002-0746-9229, Berger, Nicolas, Robinson, Eric ORCID: 0000-0003-3586-5533 and Colombet, Zoe ORCID: 0000-0001-6179-7517 (2025) Estimating the health impact of menu calorie labelling policy and sugar-sweetened beverage taxation in two European countries: a microsimulation study EUROPEAN JOURNAL OF PREVENTIVE CARDIOLOGY, 32 (16). pp. 1649-1659. ISSN 2047-4873, 2047-4881

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Abstract

Aims To estimate and compare the impacts of mandatory menu calorie labelling policy and sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) taxation on reducing obesity prevalence, cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality, and equity-related impacts, in Belgium and Germany. Methods and results We used microsimulation models over a 20-year simulation horizon (2022-2041). We modelled the impacts through assumed changes in energy intake due to consumer responses and food industry reformulation. Scenarios of partial (in 'large' out-of-home food businesses; ≥ 250 employees) and full (in all out-of-home food businesses) implementation for menu calorie labelling and different tax rates for SSBs (10%, 20%, 30%) were simulated. Compared with the counterfactual scenario, assuming effects on both consumer and industry behaviour, menu calorie labelling applied to all out-of-home food businesses was estimated to reduce obesity prevalence by 3.61 [95% uncertainty interval-UI: (2.78, 4.30)] and 4.28 [95% UI: (3.64, 5.06)] percentage points and prevent 1600 [95% UI: (400, 3800)] and 30 000 [95% UI: (10 000, 58 000)] CVD deaths in Belgium and Germany over 20 years, respectively. The 30% SSB tax was estimated to reduce obesity prevalence by 0.27 [95% UI: (0.17, 0.43)] and 0.27 [95% UI: (0.17, 0.39)] percentage points and postpone 2500 [95% UI: (800, 5200)] and 16 000 [95% UI: (7500, 28 000)] CVD deaths in Belgium and Germany, respectively. In both countries, SSB taxation had a larger impact on CVD deaths for lower (vs. higher) education groups, whereas menu calorie labelling prevented more CVD deaths for higher (vs. lower) education groups. Conclusion Menu calorie labelling and SSB taxation have substantial impacts on reducing obesity prevalence and preventing CVD deaths in Belgium and Germany. Implementing both policies will be important to tackle obesity and CVD burden.

Item Type:	Article
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Simulation modelling, Policy evaluation, Food policies, Public health policies, Europe
Divisions:	Faculty of Health & Life Sciences Faculty of Health & Life Sciences > Inst. Population Health
Depositing User:	Symplectic Admin
Date Deposited:	30 Jun 2025 10:15
Last Modified:	16 Jun 2026 16:53
DOI:	10.1093/eurjpc/zwaf333
Open Access URL:	https://doi.org/10.1093/eurjpc/zwaf333
Related Websites:	Author Publisher
URI:	https://livrepository.liverpool.ac.uk/id/eprint/3193374
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