Zhou, L 
ORCID: 0009-0007-0706-2756, Jin, JG ORCID: 0000-0002-8507-1435, Gao, Y, Iris, Ç ORCID: 0000-0001-5422-354X, Bektaş, T ORCID: 0000-0003-0634-144X and Chen, JH ORCID: 0000-0003-1385-2299
(2026)
Techno-economic optimization for containership green transition under net-zero emission target: a predict-then-optimize framework
Transportation Research Part E Logistics and Transportation Review, 209.
104731-.
ISSN 1366-5545
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Text
Techno-economic optimization for containership green transition under net-zero emission regulations.pdf - Author Accepted Manuscript Available under License Creative Commons Attribution. Download (6MB) | Preview |
Abstract
Shipping companies are under growing pressure to meet net-zero emission target under tightening regulations. To tackle this challenge, this paper extends the techno-economic predict-then-optimize framework to make long-term strategic decisions that jointly minimize greenhouse gas emissions and lifecycle costs over the planning horizon. The framework integrates a vessel-specific fuel consumption prediction model for comprehensive estimation of future emissions, and an optimization model that strategically schedules and combines multiple emission reduction methods. The optimization explicitly accounts for the techno-economic trade-offs among slow steaming, maintenance, fuel switching, and capital investments for retrofits, while ensuring compliance with carbon intensity indicator (CII) regulations and the overall net-zero emission target. A case study on several containerships demonstrates the applicability of the model, with numerical experiments showing that the predict-then-optimize framework achieves a 67% carbon reduction by 2040. Further investigations of the strategies, including illustration of transition plans, comparisons of different strategies, evaluation of marginal costs for each method, and sensitivity analysis on interest rates and regulations, are conducted to provide insights into lifecycle cost-minimizing and emission regulation-compliant strategy design.
| Item Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | 3509 Transportation, Logistics and Supply Chains, 35 Commerce, Management, Tourism and Services, 13 Climate Action |
| Divisions: | Faculty of Humanities & Social Sciences Faculty of Humanities & Social Sciences > Faculty of Humanities & Social Sci (All T&R Staff) Faculty of Humanities & Social Sciences > School of Management Faculty of Humanities & Social Sciences > School of Management > Operations and Supply Chain Management Faculty of Humanities & Social Sciences > School of Management > School of Management (T&R Staff) |
| Depositing User: | Symplectic Admin |
| Date Deposited: | 13 Feb 2026 10:25 |
| Last Modified: | 23 May 2026 10:58 |
| DOI: | 10.1016/j.tre.2026.104731 |
| Related Websites: | |
| URI: | https://livrepository.liverpool.ac.uk/id/eprint/3196985 |
| Disclaimer: | The University of Liverpool is not responsible for content contained on other websites from links within repository metadata. Please contact us if you notice anything that appears incorrect or inappropriate. |
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