System reliability analysis of slope stability using generalized Subset Simulation

Li, Dian-Qing, Yang, Zhi-Yong, Cao, Zi-Jun, Au, Siu-Kui ORCID: 0000-0002-0228-1796 and Phoon, Kok-Kwang (2017) System reliability analysis of slope stability using generalized Subset Simulation. APPLIED MATHEMATICAL MODELLING, 46. pp. 650-664.

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Abstract

Slope failure mechanisms (e.g., why and where slope failure occurs) are usually unknown prior to slope stability analysis. Several possible failure scenarios (e.g., slope sliding along different slip surfaces) can be assumed, leading to a number of scenario failure events of slope stability. How to account rationally for various scenario failure events in slope stability reliability analysis and how to identify key failure events that have significant contributions to slope failure are critical questions in slope engineering. In this study, these questions are resolved by developing an efficient computer-based simulation method for slope system reliability analysis. The proposed approach decomposes a slope system failure event into a series of scenario failure events representing possible failure scenarios and calculates their occurrence probabilities by a single run of an advanced Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) method, called generalized Subset Simulation (GSS). Using GSS results, representative failure events (RFEs) that are considered relatively independent are identified from scenario failure events using probabilistic network evaluation technique. Their relative contributions are assessed quantitatively, based on which key failure events are determined. The proposed approach is illustrated using a soil slope example and a rock slope example. It is shown that the proposed approach provides proper estimates of occurrence probabilities of slope system failure event and scenario failure events by a single GSS run, which avoids repeatedly performing simulations for each failure event. Compared with direct MCS, the proposed approach significantly improves computational efficiency, particularly for failure events with small failure probabilities. Key failure events of slope stability are determined among scenario failure events in a cost-effective manner. Such information is valuable in making slope design decisions and remedial measures.

Item Type:	Article
Additional Information:	publisher: Elsevier articletitle: System reliability analysis of slope stability using generalized Subset Simulation journaltitle: Applied Mathematical Modelling articlelink: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.apm.2017.01.047 content_type: article copyright: © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Slope stability, Generalized Subset Simulation, System reliability, Representative failure event, Key failure event
Depositing User:	Symplectic Admin
Date Deposited:	20 Jun 2017 14:59
Last Modified:	19 Jan 2023 07:02
DOI:	10.1016/j.apm.2017.01.047
Related URLs:	Author Publisher
URI:	https://livrepository.liverpool.ac.uk/id/eprint/3008065