A dynamic analysis of S&P 500, FTSE 100 and EURO STOXX 50 indices under different exchange rates

Chen, Yanhua, Mantegna, Rosario N, Pantelous, Athanasios A ORCID: 0000-0001-5738-1471 and Zuev, Konstantin M (2018) A dynamic analysis of S&P 500, FTSE 100 and EURO STOXX 50 indices under different exchange rates. PLOS ONE, 13 (3). e0194067-.

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Official URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0194067

Abstract

In this study, we assess the dynamic evolution of short-term correlation, long-term cointegration and Error Correction Model (hereafter referred to as ECM)-based long-term Granger causality between each pair of US, UK, and Eurozone stock markets from 1980 to 2015 using the rolling-window technique. A comparative analysis of pairwise dynamic integration and causality of stock markets, measured in common and domestic currency terms, is conducted to evaluate comprehensively how exchange rate fluctuations affect the time-varying integration among the S&P 500, FTSE 100 and EURO STOXX 50 indices. The results obtained show that the dynamic correlation, cointegration and ECM-based long-run Granger causality vary significantly over the whole sample period. The degree of dynamic correlation and cointegration between pairs of stock markets rises in periods of high volatility and uncertainty, especially under the influence of economic, financial and political shocks. Meanwhile, we observe the weaker and decreasing correlation and cointegration among the three developed stock markets during the recovery periods. Interestingly, the most persistent and significant cointegration among the three developed stock markets exists during the 2007-09 global financial crisis. Finally, the exchange rate fluctuations, also influence the dynamic integration and causality between all pairs of stock indices, with that influence increasing under the local currency terms. Our results suggest that the potential for diversifying risk by investing in the US, UK and Eurozone stock markets is limited during the periods of economic, financial and political shocks.

Item Type:	Article
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Models, Statistical, Models, Economic, Risk, Time Factors, Politics, Investments, United States, Europe
Depositing User:	Symplectic Admin
Date Deposited:	05 Feb 2019 16:23
Last Modified:	19 Jan 2023 01:05
DOI:	10.1371/journal.pone.0194067
Open Access URL:	https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0194067
Related URLs:	Author Publisher
URI:	https://livrepository.liverpool.ac.uk/id/eprint/3032303