Do climate models reproduce complexity of observed sea level changes?

Becker, M, Karpytchev, M, Marcos, M, Jevrejeva, S and Lennartz-Sassinek, S (2016) Do climate models reproduce complexity of observed sea level changes? GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, 43 (10). pp. 5176-5184.

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Official URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/2016gl068971

Abstract

<jats:title>Abstract</jats:title><jats:p>The ability of Atmosphere‐Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs) to capture the statistical behavior of sea level (SL) fluctuations has been assessed at the local scale. To do so, we have compared scaling behavior of the SL fluctuations simulated in the historical runs of 36 CMIP5 AOGCMs to that in the longest (>100 years) SL records from 23 tides gauges around the globe. The observed SL fluctuations are known to manifest a power law scaling. We have checked if the SL changes simulated in the AOGCM exhibit the same scaling properties and the long‐term correlations as observed in the tide gauge records. We find that the majority of AOGCMs overestimates the scaling of SL fluctuations, particularly in the North Atlantic. Consequently, AOGCMs, routinely used to project regional SL rise, may underestimate the part of the externally driven SL rise, in particular the anthropogenic footprint, in the projections for the 21st century.</jats:p>

Item Type:	Article
Uncontrolled Keywords:	13 Climate Action
Depositing User:	Symplectic Admin
Date Deposited:	12 Feb 2020 11:48
Last Modified:	16 Mar 2024 10:30
DOI:	10.1002/2016GL068971
Open Access URL:	http://nora.nerc.ac.uk/id/eprint/514152/
Related URLs:	Author Publisher
URI:	https://livrepository.liverpool.ac.uk/id/eprint/3074678