Why were there 231 707 more deaths than expected in England between 2010 and 2018? An ecological analysis of mortality records



Darlington-Pollock, Frances ORCID: 0000-0001-5544-4459, Green, Mark A ORCID: 0000-0002-0942-6628 and Simpson, Ludi
(2022) Why were there 231 707 more deaths than expected in England between 2010 and 2018? An ecological analysis of mortality records. JOURNAL OF PUBLIC HEALTH, 44 (2). pp. 310-318.

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Abstract

<h4>Background</h4>Policy responses to the Global Financial Crisis emphasized wide-ranging fiscal austerity measures, many of which have been found to negatively impact health outcomes. This paper investigates change in patterns of mortality at local authority level in England (2010-11 to 2017-18) and the relation with fiscal austerity measures.<h4>Methods</h4>Data from official local authority administrative records are used to quantify the gap between observed deaths and what was anticipated in the 2010-based subnational population projections. Regression analyses are used to explore the relation between excess deaths, austerity and wider process of population change at local authority level.<h4>Results</h4>We estimate 231 707 total excess deaths, the majority of which occurred since 2014-15 (89%) across the majority of local authorities (91%). Austerity is positively associated with excess deaths. For working age adults, there is a clear gradient to the impact of austerity, whereas for older adults, the impact is more uniform.<h4>Conclusions</h4>Fiscal austerity policies contributed to an excess of deaths for older people and widened social inequalities for younger populations. These results call for an end to all austerity measures and require further research into areas with the highest total excess deaths as a priority following the COVID-19 pandemic.

Item Type: Article
Uncontrolled Keywords: Humans, Mortality, Socioeconomic Factors, Aged, England, Pandemics, COVID-19
Depositing User: Symplectic Admin
Date Deposited: 01 Feb 2021 15:04
Last Modified: 18 Jan 2023 23:01
DOI: 10.1093/pubmed/fdab023
Related URLs:
URI: https://livrepository.liverpool.ac.uk/id/eprint/3115047