Directions of change in intrinsic case severity across successive SARS-CoV-2 variant waves have been inconsistent.

Pascall, David J, Vink, Elen ORCID: 0000-0001-8535-6214, Blacow, Rachel, Bulteel, Naomi, Campbell, Alasdair, Campbell, Robyn, Clifford, Sarah, Davis, Chris, da Silva Filipe, Ana, El Sakka, Noha
et al (show 28 more authors) (2023) Directions of change in intrinsic case severity across successive SARS-CoV-2 variant waves have been inconsistent. The Journal of infection, 87 (2). pp. 128-135.

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<h4>Objectives</h4>To determine how the intrinsic severity of successively dominant SARS-CoV-2 variants changed over the course of the pandemic.<h4>Methods</h4>A retrospective cohort analysis in the NHS Greater Glasgow and Clyde (NHS GGC) Health Board. All sequenced non-nosocomial adult COVID-19 cases in NHS GGC with relevant SARS-CoV-2 lineages (B.1.177/Alpha, Alpha/Delta, AY.4.2 Delta/non-AY.4.2 Delta, non-AY.4.2 Delta/Omicron, and BA.1 Omicron/BA.2 Omicron) during analysis periods were included. Outcome measures were hospital admission, ICU admission, or death within 28 days of positive COVID-19 test. We report the cumulative odds ratio; the ratio of the odds that an individual experiences a severity event of a given level vs all lower severity levels for the resident and the replacement variant after adjustment.<h4>Results</h4>After adjustment for covariates, the cumulative odds ratio was 1.51 (95% CI: 1.08-2.11) for Alpha versus B.1.177, 2.09 (95% CI: 1.42-3.08) for Delta versus Alpha, 0.99 (95% CI: 0.76-1.27) for AY.4.2 Delta versus non-AY.4.2 Delta, 0.49 (95% CI: 0.22-1.06) for Omicron versus non-AY.4.2 Delta, and 0.86 (95% CI: 0.68-1.09) for BA.2 Omicron versus BA.1 Omicron.<h4>Conclusions</h4>The direction of change in intrinsic severity between successively emerging SARS-CoV-2 variants was inconsistent, reminding us that the intrinsic severity of future SARS-CoV-2 variants remains uncertain.

Item Type: Article
Uncontrolled Keywords: COVID-19 Genomics UK (COG-UK) Consortium, Humans, Hospitalization, Retrospective Studies, Adult, COVID-19, SARS-CoV-2
Divisions: Faculty of Health and Life Sciences
Faculty of Health and Life Sciences > Institute of Infection, Veterinary and Ecological Sciences
Depositing User: Symplectic Admin
Date Deposited: 30 Jan 2024 11:00
Last Modified: 30 Jan 2024 11:34
DOI: 10.1016/j.jinf.2023.05.019
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