The deterministic Kermack-McKendrick model bounds the general stochastic epidemic

Wilkinson, RR, Ball, FG and Sharkey, KJ (2016) The deterministic Kermack-McKendrick model bounds the general stochastic epidemic. J. Appl. Probab., 53. 4 - 4.

Text 1602.01730v3.pdf - Author Accepted Manuscript Download (182kB)

Abstract

We prove that, for Poisson transmission and recovery processes, the classic Susceptible $\to$ Infected $\to$ Recovered (SIR) epidemic model of Kermack and McKendrick provides, for any given time $t>0$, a strict lower bound on the expected number of suscpetibles and a strict upper bound on the expected number of recoveries in the general stochastic SIR epidemic. The proof is based on the recent message passing representation of SIR epidemics applied to a complete graph.

Item Type:	Article
Uncontrolled Keywords:	q-bio.PE, q-bio.PE, cond-mat.stat-mech, math.PR, physics.soc-ph
Depositing User:	Symplectic Admin
Date Deposited:	13 Nov 2017 08:25
Last Modified:	19 Jan 2023 06:50
Related URLs:	http://arxiv.org/abs/1602.01730v3
URI:	https://livrepository.liverpool.ac.uk/id/eprint/3011902

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• The deterministic Kermack-McKendrick model bounds the general stochastic epidemic. (deposited 13 Nov 2017 08:25) [Currently Displayed]
  • The deterministic Kermack‒McKendrick model bounds the general stochastic epidemic. (deposited 11 Dec 2017 09:09)