Wilkinson, RR, Ball, FG and Sharkey, KJ
(2016)
The deterministic Kermack-McKendrick model bounds the general stochastic epidemic.
J. Appl. Probab., 53.
4 - 4.
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1602.01730v3.pdf - Author Accepted Manuscript Download (182kB) |
Abstract
We prove that, for Poisson transmission and recovery processes, the classic Susceptible $\to$ Infected $\to$ Recovered (SIR) epidemic model of Kermack and McKendrick provides, for any given time $t>0$, a strict lower bound on the expected number of suscpetibles and a strict upper bound on the expected number of recoveries in the general stochastic SIR epidemic. The proof is based on the recent message passing representation of SIR epidemics applied to a complete graph.
Item Type: | Article |
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Uncontrolled Keywords: | q-bio.PE, q-bio.PE, cond-mat.stat-mech, math.PR, physics.soc-ph |
Depositing User: | Symplectic Admin |
Date Deposited: | 13 Nov 2017 08:25 |
Last Modified: | 19 Jan 2023 06:50 |
Related URLs: | |
URI: | https://livrepository.liverpool.ac.uk/id/eprint/3011902 |
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