Ma, Yuan-Zhuo, Li, Hong-Shuang, Au, Siu-Kui 
ORCID: 0000-0002-0228-1796 and Yao, Wei-Xing
(2019)
Probabilistic Analysis Methodology for Thermal Protection System during Conceptual Design.
Journal of Aerospace Engineering, 32 (6).
04019085-.
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Abstract
This paper presents a probabilistic analysis methodology for a nonablative thermal protection system (TPS) of spacecraft at the conceptual design stage. The probabilistic analysis focuses on uncertainty characterization and uncertainty in failure prediction. TPS selection and sizing using sequential quadratic programming design optimization are first performed to provide the nominal values of the distribution parameters for uncertainty parameters such as the allowable temperature limits and thickness of TPS materials. Multi-input and multi-output support vector machines are utilized to approximate the thermal responses when failure modes are constructed, which dramatically reduces computational effort. Generalized subset simulation is used to estimate the failure probabilities at all nodes with a single simulation run, which further reduces the computational burden. The proposed methodology is applied to a lifting body vehicle model and a spacecraft model for conceptual design. Difficulties encountered and the performance of the method are investigated.
| Item Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | Nonablative, Thermal protection system, Conceptual design, Failure prediction |
| Depositing User: | Symplectic Admin |
| Date Deposited: | 23 Jun 2020 09:53 |
| Last Modified: | 17 Mar 2024 07:37 |
| DOI: | 10.1061/(ASCE)AS.1943-5525.0001063 |
| Related URLs: | |
| URI: | https://livrepository.liverpool.ac.uk/id/eprint/3090882 |
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