A weather-driven model of malaria transmission.



Hoshen, Moshe B and Morse, Andrew P ORCID: 0000-0002-0413-2065
(2004) A weather-driven model of malaria transmission. Malar J, 3. 32 - ?.

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Abstract

BACKGROUND: Climate is a major driving force behind malaria transmission and climate data are often used to account for the spatial, seasonal and interannual variation in malaria transmission. METHODS: This paper describes a mathematical-biological model of the parasite dynamics, comprising both the weather-dependent within-vector stages and the weather-independent within-host stages. RESULTS: Numerical evaluations of the model in both time and space show that it qualitatively reconstructs the prevalence of infection. CONCLUSION: A process-based modelling structure has been developed that may be suitable for the simulation of malaria forecasts based on seasonal weather forecasts.

Item Type: Article
Uncontrolled Keywords: Africa, Animals, Anopheles, Cattle, Climate, Female, Host-Parasite Interactions, Humans, Insect Vectors, Malaria, Falciparum, Models, Biological, Population Dynamics, Probability, Rain, Seasons, Species Specificity, Stochastic Processes, Temperature, Weather, Zimbabwe
Subjects: G Geography. Anthropology. Recreation > G Geography (General)
Divisions: ?? dep_physic ??
?? dep_geog ??
Depositing User: Symplectic Admin
Date Deposited: 04 Nov 2009 12:55
Last Modified: 08 May 2020 17:17
DOI: 10.1186/1475-2875-3-32
Publisher's Statement : © 2004 Hoshen and Morse; licensee BioMed Central Ltd. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
Related URLs:
URI: http://livrepository.liverpool.ac.uk/id/eprint/779