Quantifying the impact of COVID-19 on immigration in receiving high-income countries



Gonzalez-Leonardo, Miguel, Potancokova, Michaela, Yildiz, Dilek and Rowe, Francisco ORCID: 0000-0003-4137-0246
(2023) Quantifying the impact of COVID-19 on immigration in receiving high-income countries. PLOS ONE, 18 (1). e0280324.

[img] PDF
Quantifying the impact of COVID-19 on immigration in receiving high-income countries.pdf - Open Access published version

Download (1MB) | Preview

Abstract

Previous studies have examined the impact of COVID-19 on mortality and fertility. However, little is known about the effect of the pandemic on constraining international migration. We use Eurostat and national statistics data on immigration and ARIMA time-series models to quantify the impact of COVID-19 on immigration flows in 15 high-income countries by forecasting their counterfactual levels in 2020, assuming no pandemic, and comparing these estimates with observed immigration counts. We then explore potential driving forces, such as stringency measures and increases in unemployment moderating the extent of immigration change. Our results show that immigration declined in all countries, except in Finland. Yet, significant cross-national variations exist. Australia (60%), Spain (45%) and Sweden (36%) display the largest declines, while immigration decreased by between 15% and 30% in seven countries, and by less than 15% in four nations where results were not statistically significant. International travel restrictions, mobility restrictions and stay-at-home requirements exhibit a relatively strong relationship with declines in immigration, although countries with similar levels of stringency witnessed varying levels of immigration decline. Work and school closings and unemployment show no relationship with changes in immigration.

Item Type: Article
Uncontrolled Keywords: Humans, Demography, Population Dynamics, Emigration and Immigration, Developed Countries, Developing Countries, Public Policy, COVID-19
Divisions: Faculty of Science and Engineering > School of Environmental Sciences
Depositing User: Symplectic Admin
Date Deposited: 11 Apr 2023 09:09
Last Modified: 11 Apr 2023 11:01
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0280324
Related URLs:
URI: https://livrepository.liverpool.ac.uk/id/eprint/3169512