A Bayesian approach to estimate annual bilateral migration flows for South America using census data

Aparicio Castro, Andrea ORCID: 0000-0001-6498-7025, Wiśniowski, Arkadiusz ORCID: 0000-0002-7567-3600 and Rowe, Francisco ORCID: 0000-0003-4137-0246 (2024) A Bayesian approach to estimate annual bilateral migration flows for South America using census data. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A: Statistics in Society, 187 (2). pp. 410-435.

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Official URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/jrsssa/qnad127

Abstract

<jats:title>Abstract</jats:title> <jats:p>Censuses are an important source of international migration flow data. However, their use is limited since they indirectly reflect migration, capturing migrant transitions over long intervals rather than migration events, whilst also underestimating the number of infants and deaths. Censuses also neglect migration of those who are native-born when they only include questions on country of birth, and have sparse temporal availability. We propose a Bayesian hierarchical model to overcome these limitations and produce a set of robust annual migration flow estimates for South American countries. Our model translates five-year transition data from censuses into annual series, corrects biases that arise due to differences in measurement and census data quality across countries, and is grounded in migration theory to impute missing migration data between censuses.</jats:p>

Item Type:	Article
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Basic Behavioral and Social Science, Behavioral and Social Science, Pediatric
Divisions:	Faculty of Science and Engineering > School of Environmental Sciences
Depositing User:	Symplectic Admin
Date Deposited:	02 Jan 2024 16:32
Last Modified:	26 Apr 2024 07:57
DOI:	10.1093/jrsssa/qnad127
Related URLs:	Publisher
URI:	https://livrepository.liverpool.ac.uk/id/eprint/3177654